Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Why I Would Like To See a Mitt Romney Victory Tonight

In just over an hour polls close throughout Michigan (though, with turnout as low as has been reported, there may not be many more people left to vote) and I would just love to see a Mitt Romney victory tonight. Not just because he's a Michigan guy and I like to see those from our great state do well, and not just because it would help derail John McCain's campaign (while McCain is a patriot and a honorable man who would make a great President, because of these qualities, I don't want him anywhere near the nomination as he is the most, and likely only electable Republican candidate) but because it would throw the Republican race into complete chaos.

Should Romney win, we'd have three major primaries/caucuses (and a Romney win in Wyoming), and three different winners (Mike Huckabee in Iowa, McCain in New Hampshire, and Romney in Michigan) with South Carolina completely up for grabs and Rudy Giuliani waiting in Florida. Imagine Rudy does hold on and wins in the Sunshine State. That would be five big states and five different winners. On Super Tuesday, when over 20-states have primaries and caucuses, imagine would could happen. Mike Huckabee, the popular and gregarious former Baptist preacher could sweep the Bible Belt states. John McCain could do the same in the Southwest where he's a Senator (Arizona). Rudy could take the Northeast, including New York, splitting some with Romney, who could also do well in some of the Midwest states.

There is a growing chance, every day, especially if Romney wins tonight, of no nominee having enough delegates to win the nomination heading into the primary. It happened on West Wing during Season Six, and now, with life imitating art, it could actually happen again. If Romney loses tonight, conventional wisdom, which I agree with, has John McCain on a roll, having won two primaries in a row with a good chance to make it three in South Carolina on Saturday. He could be unstoppable at that point. But if he does get stopped tonight, then there's no telling what could happen, and from a (somewhat) neutral political observer, there's almost nothing better than that.

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j said...

A Romney win in Michigan will prove that Romney is the strongest candidate. At this point in the game, two seconds and two firsts will say one hell of a lot. He will have a good shot at the nomination if he wins, and contrary to what many democrats think, he will be absolutely formidable against a democrat opponent.


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