The Iowa Caucus Is Finally Here

After months of hype, thousands of television ads, Oprah, and tens of millions of dollars spent, the Iowa Caucuses are here. Tonight, we'll know (or not) whether the Democratic establishment succeeded in overcoming the surge of Barack Obama and John Edwards to keep Hillary Clinton at the front of the pack and whether the team of a floating cross (or was it a conveniently lit IKEA bookshelf?) and Chuck Norris can overcome the millions of dollars spent by Mitt Romney.

I've talked at length previously about why I think Barack Obama is the best choice to lead not just the Democratic Party, but country, and bring the change we desperately need while (unlike Senator Clinton) being able to work with Republicans and Independents to get it done, so I'll just say one more thing. It's almost ironic, that the reason why a lot of Iowans and others are hesitant to support Obama is not his policies or his inexperience (really) but they fear he isn't electable. After Al Gore and John Kerry, Democrats are so desperate for a win, and the only Democrat to win in my lifetime, and the lifetime of a lot of Democrats, was Clinton. Barack Obama, though, is infinitely more electable than Hillary Clinton. Just take one look at the head-to-head polls. Hillary is a toss-up, or worse, against most Republicans. Obama is a clear winner. Now, the Clinton campaign will say that's because her negatives are so high because she's had to fight off Republican attacks since 1992, and Obama's numbers will dip once the Republicans get a hold of him.

I don't believe it, and you shouldn't either. No Republican in this race, not one, is as tough, or as calculating, or runs as ruthless a campaign (and ruthless is not always bad in politics, so that word probably sounds more negative than I mean it to be) as Hillary Clinton, and she's had a really hard time knocking Obama off-stride. If she and her campaign and the Clinton machine can't do it, no Republican will be able to. And just look at how Obama will win Iowa, if he wins Iowa. It's by bringing an extraordinary number of independents and even some Republicans into the Democratic world to vote for him. That won't just help him win the Iowa Caucus, it will help him win the state of Iowa in the 2008 Presidential Election, a state the Democrats haven't won since 1996. And it will help him win all across the country. Hillary Clinton will never get that kind of broad-base support. She's a 50% + 1. Barack Obama could unify a nation. And that's not hyperbole. Obama isn't just the smart choice policy wise, he's the right choice politically looking toward the general election. Let's hope Democrats in Iowa wake up this morning feeling the same way.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee has the momentum, but Mitt Romney has the on-the-ground organization, and probably will squeak by because of that if I had to guess. But, as everyone keeps saying, Huckabee is a great politician and a great communicator. He spent, at most, $500,000 in Iowa. Mitt Romney spent at least $8 million, and likely closer to $10 million. It's an amazing spread considering Huckabee is leading going into tonight's vote. I watched Huckabee on the Tonight Show tonight and he was great. I don't know if I agree with his plan for a "Fair Tax" (national sales tax) in place of the income tax, but the way he explained it, it's hard not to get on board. I still can't vote for him, for any number of reasons (his stances on guns being the most blatant, but his disbelief in evolution is up there too) but it's hard not to like the guy, and if Hillary Clinton gets nominated, there is not a more perfect Republican candidate to take her down than Huckabee. I know most Democrats relish the chance to take him on, thinking he'll be an easy foil in November, but I wouldn't be so quick to celebrate should he win. He may win Iowa, despite being outspent 20-1 for a reason.

I'll be posting here tomorrow night, a night I plan on spending watching MSNBC all night. With a team like Keith Olbermann, Chris Matthews, Howard Fineman, Eugene Robinson, Andrea Mitchell, Pat Buchanan, Norah O'Donnell, Joe Scarborough, and others, there won't be any better political coverage out there (though I may flip to CNN and Fox News to see what they say as well).

I'd close by saying something like "It doesn't matter who you vote for, just make sure you vote" tomorrow if you are in Iowa (or, as I properly should say, "just make sure you caucus") but it does matter who you Caucus for. America will either change for the better tomorrow (an Obama win), or will simply be arming itself for the same fight it's been having since the 1980s (a Clinton win). Maybe Clinton can win that fight. Likely, she'll just be fighting it for her term in office. Obama, though, as Mike Huckabee said on the Tonight Show (praising Obama) he's a vertical politician. He transcends right, left, Republican, Democrat, and he can lift America up. Iowa voters just have to let him.