Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Wrapping up Super Tuesday: Obama Wins More States, Likely More Delegates

So, it's 1:00 on Super, well, now Wednesday, and do we know anything more than we did before the voting started? Well, according to NBC, Barack Obama will likely end the night with more delegates won tonight than Hillary Clinton. He won many more states (13) than Clinton did (8) including Connecticut, which was unlikely, and Missouri, which is a big victory even though it was only by roughly 5,000 votes.

The problem for Obama? Clinton won California. And despite momentum being on Obama's side, she held on in New Jersey and won big in Massachusetts. Even though Hillary was leading by double digits in those states, because of Obama's recent surge, his losses though look much worse than they would have otherwise.

The other problem is the calculation of delegates. The Obama campaign claims they will have the most delegates at the end of the night, and NBC's Chuck Todd agrees, but other networks have Clinton with an edge. I trust Chuck Todd, who had the delegates within 5 or 6 of each other, a virtual tie even though Hillary won the big states (New York and California).

Overall though, this was a big night for Obama. 13 wins for Obama, likely/possibly more delegates, and maintain their overall lead in pledged delegates (though we likely have to wait until tomorrow to find that out for sure). And the upcoming states favor Obama like Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Washington D.C., Maryland, and Virginia.

It's still anybody's race, and if the delegates stay in Obama's favor, that's a big, big victory.

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