Super Tuesday II Predictions

I continue to be very pessimistic today about Barack Obama's chances in Texas and Ohio, especially as Zogby has Clinton erasing a three-point Texas deficit overnight, and has her now leading by 3 in the Lone Star State.

My predictions? Clinton by 6 in Ohio, by 4 in Texas (but he'll win more delegates in Texas), by 5 in Rhode Island, and Obama by 20 in Vermont. At the end of the night, Obama will have netted more total delegates than Clinton (thanks to a big win in Vermont, close losses in Rhode Island and Ohio, and a delegate, but not popular vote, win in Texas) and this race is back to square one. Obama will win Wyoming and Mississippi in the next 10 days and then we'll have a six week blitz in Pennsylvania leading up to April 22. If Obama can win there, it's over. If he loses, then we have a fight over Michigan, Florida, and Super Delegates, and the party is ripped apart, and the Republicans win in November.

But tonight, it's going to be Hillary Clinton's night. Even if she ends up losing more delegates than she wins.

I Just Have a Bad Feeling About Tomorrow

I just have a bad feeling about tomorrow.

Hillary Clinton is gaining fast on Barack Obama and I continually get a worse and worse feeling about tomorrow night. As I wrote yesterday Barack Obama has let expectations way out of control for tomorrow, and despite being down nearly 20 points in both Ohio and Texas as early as two weeks ago, he surged to such an extent that two close losses tomorrow could be devastating. And you have to give the Clinton campaign credit. From leaking the picture of Obama in African tribal dress and hedging on Obama's religion (there's no question, as we saw on 60 Minutes last night, that these rumors of Obama's religion have taken on a life of their own, and Clinton herself refusing last night to unequivocally say Obama is not a Muslim was very telling) to hitting him on experience and the "red phone ad" in Texas and NAFTA and this Canadian meeting where an Obama adviser praised NAFTA in Ohio, the Clinton campaign has stopped Obama's momentum in his tracks. Some of it is fear-mongering and some of it (the religion hedge) is offensive, but there's no question it's working. Hillary has re-taken the lad in Rasmussen's daily tracking poll, and she's widening her lead in Ohio in all but John Zogby's latest poll (and we all know how well Zogby did when he called a big Obama win in California) and closing fast in Texas after falling behind earlier in the week.

I just do not have a good feeling about tomorrow. I think there's almost no question Clinton wins Ohio, and it could be by a larger margin than people think. And Obama may be able to hold on in Texas, but it really depends on the African American and Hispanic turnout.

Clinton, even with victories in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island, would still be 150 pledged delegates behind and 100 total delegates behind on Wednesday, and there's a good chance even if she wins the popular vote in Texas, she'll lose the delegate count. We forget that Clinton was supposed to win these states going away. Now, squeaking by may be a mortal blow to Obama's coronation. And the more I look at the numbers and watch MSNBC, the more I think tomorrow will be Clinton's night, in Ohio and Texas, and that the entire national storyline will change to Clinton once again being considered the front-runner. And all this despite an almost insurmountable delegate lead for Obama.

I just have a bad feeling about tomorrow.

Barack Obama and the Expectations Problem

In many ways Barack Obama has run an incredible campaign. He faced off against the Clinton machine, a veteran of three national races (one Democratic primary in 1992 and Presidential races in 1992 and 1996), with a team that could raise more money than anyone, and with connections in more places than anyone running for President. And he's a one-term Senator, who nobody knew before 2004. Yet, despite the advantages of the Clintons, and Obama's lack of experience with national races, he has, in almost every way, run a far superior campaign than Hillary Clinton. He's raised more money from more people (over 1,000,000 donors, an amazing figure). He's won twice as many states, won more votes, many more delegates. And he had the foresight to organize in the caucus states and to prepare for a long race which would last far past February 5th.

But Barack Obama has not run a perfect campaign. Almost every time he has Clinton on the ropes, he can't put her away, in large part because his campaign fails to properly keep expectations low. After his stunning 9-point victory in Iowa, everyone had him dominating in New Hampshire, where he perpetually trailed. And when he lost by 2-points it may have well been 20. On Super Tuesday, Obama may have won more states and more delegates, but the states where he was on the rise, where the expectations got out of control, California, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, he lost, and in the case of Massachusetts, lost badly despite the support of both Democratic Senators (Ted Kennedy and John Kerry) and the Democratic Governor (Deval Patrick). So Super Tuesday was almost a net loss for Obama, despite being a great night overall because even though he badly trailed in New Jersey, California, and Massachusetts, he was rising so fast, the expectations got out of control.

The same thing is happening for "Junior Super Tuesday." Barack Obama, two weeks ago, was down almost 20-points in both Ohio and Texas. In that time, he has made an incredible run (as he does in every state he campaigns in -- Another reason why it is unfair to count Michigan and Florida) to cut the lead in Ohio to under 5, and to take the lead in Texas this week. And the stakes couldn't be higher. If Obama can win one, he all but eliminates Clinton. He wins both, and there's almost no question Clinton drops out of the race Wednesday morning.

The problem now is though, again, because Obama has risen so fast, and closed so quickly, and because his campaign has done a horrendous job of maintaining low expectations for the night, Hillary Clinton wins by practically showing up. Her campaign maintains that Obama must win all four states Tuesday, especially Texas and Ohio, or it shows that voters have lost faith in him. While that's not true, obviously, because both states were strongly in Clinton's column as recently as 10 days ago, it does not seem like such a sure thing anymore that Clinton will drop out if she loses Texas. Since Obama is now seen as the favorite in that state, if she wins, despite her huge lead two weeks ago, she's made a great comeback, and it will keep her in the race.

And there's evidence that the race in Texas is tightening. Zogby has the race down to 2 points from six yesterday. Other polls also show a Clinton rebound, which should continue after her tough national security ads in the state and her appearances on Saturday Night Live tonight and the Daily Show tomorrow, which should guarantee Hillary positive press coverage (and lots of free media) in the 48-hour run up to the primaries.

Maybe I'm just needlessly worried, especially so close to securing the nomination for Obama. But I really fear these expectations are almost unrealistic for Obama, and now, should he lose Texas, even by 2 or 3 points (and pick up more delegates in the process) it will be looked at as a loss, just like Super Tuesday was. And even though Obama has made up incredible ground among the Super Delegates, I can still see Clinton trying to wrestle this nomination away somehow, tearing the Democratic Party apart in the process, and making it impossible for us to win the fall.

So while Barack Obama may have run a great campaign, and a much superior campaign than Senator Clinton, it is not perfect, and his inability to keep expectations low have been a constant issue. I just hope it doesn't come back to haunt the campaign on March 4th.

Detroit Lions Trade Shaun Rogers

So it figures that the first sports related post I have in a long time (too long really) relates to the Detroit Lions trading away one of their best players in the Matt Millen era. For all of Shaun Rogers' faults, and there were many, when he had his head on straight (which wasn't often) he was a dominating defensive tackle. Last season, when the Lions were winning and showing life, so was Rogers, and he was getting sacks, and blocking field goals, and even scoring a touchdown on a long run back. Then Rogers faded and likely not coincidentally, so did the Lions, and we were left without another lost season. So, after failing to convince Rogers to maintain his weight and his conditioning, the team did what they threatened to do years ago, and that was trade Big Baby away and get what they could for the former Pro Bowl player.

And the best they could do was a third round pick and cornerback Leigh Bodden from the Cleveland Browns. I actually much prefer this trade to the original swap with Cincinnati which would have netted the Lions only a third and fifth round draft pick. Here, we keep the early pick, and get a guy in Bodden who can step in and start at cornerback next year. Bodden, who is only 26, had what could be considered a career year last season, with six interceptions and 88 tackles. The Bengals Chad Johnson, who is loathe to give credit to an cornerback, once called Bodden the toughest defensive back he has to face, and given how much of a need the secondary was for the Lions, this was a big pickup. With the addition of safety Dwight Smith, the returning Daniel Bullocks (the young safety who missed all of last season with a knee injury), and the re-signing of Keith Smith, the Lions secondary actually doesn't look all that scary anymore. And considering the team will likely sign one more corner and draft at least one early on in the 2008 NFL Draft, there may actually be something to get encouraged about. Maybe.

Now the Lions still have a lot of holes to fill. Right tackle is a concern, though with the acquisition of Bodden, an offensive tackle in the first round of the draft may be more of a possibility than it was a week ago. Defensive tackle is also a concern now, as I'm not convinced Shaun Cody is ready to step in to a starting roll. And, of course, linebacker is a glaring weakness. Oft-injured Boss Bailey may join his brother in Denver, leaving the Lions without a strong-side linebacker and in desperate need of a middle linebacker, as I'm ready for the great Paris Lennon experience to end.

So, while the Lions may have done themselves well yesterday, acquiring Bodden, and adding him to Smith and Smith in the rebuilt Lions secondary, the team still has a looooooooong way to go to get back to respectability. But we already knew that, right?