Monday, March 3, 2008

I Just Have a Bad Feeling About Tomorrow

I just have a bad feeling about tomorrow.

Hillary Clinton is gaining fast on Barack Obama and I continually get a worse and worse feeling about tomorrow night. As I wrote yesterday Barack Obama has let expectations way out of control for tomorrow, and despite being down nearly 20 points in both Ohio and Texas as early as two weeks ago, he surged to such an extent that two close losses tomorrow could be devastating. And you have to give the Clinton campaign credit. From leaking the picture of Obama in African tribal dress and hedging on Obama's religion (there's no question, as we saw on 60 Minutes last night, that these rumors of Obama's religion have taken on a life of their own, and Clinton herself refusing last night to unequivocally say Obama is not a Muslim was very telling) to hitting him on experience and the "red phone ad" in Texas and NAFTA and this Canadian meeting where an Obama adviser praised NAFTA in Ohio, the Clinton campaign has stopped Obama's momentum in his tracks. Some of it is fear-mongering and some of it (the religion hedge) is offensive, but there's no question it's working. Hillary has re-taken the lad in Rasmussen's daily tracking poll, and she's widening her lead in Ohio in all but John Zogby's latest poll (and we all know how well Zogby did when he called a big Obama win in California) and closing fast in Texas after falling behind earlier in the week.

I just do not have a good feeling about tomorrow. I think there's almost no question Clinton wins Ohio, and it could be by a larger margin than people think. And Obama may be able to hold on in Texas, but it really depends on the African American and Hispanic turnout.

Clinton, even with victories in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island, would still be 150 pledged delegates behind and 100 total delegates behind on Wednesday, and there's a good chance even if she wins the popular vote in Texas, she'll lose the delegate count. We forget that Clinton was supposed to win these states going away. Now, squeaking by may be a mortal blow to Obama's coronation. And the more I look at the numbers and watch MSNBC, the more I think tomorrow will be Clinton's night, in Ohio and Texas, and that the entire national storyline will change to Clinton once again being considered the front-runner. And all this despite an almost insurmountable delegate lead for Obama.

I just have a bad feeling about tomorrow.

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susan marie said...

I was trying not to let these thoughts surface. But now I also have a very bad feeling about tomorrow. It may be New Hampshire repeated, but far worse in its ramifications.


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