Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Super Tuesday II Predictions

I continue to be very pessimistic today about Barack Obama's chances in Texas and Ohio, especially as Zogby has Clinton erasing a three-point Texas deficit overnight, and has her now leading by 3 in the Lone Star State.

My predictions? Clinton by 6 in Ohio, by 4 in Texas (but he'll win more delegates in Texas), by 5 in Rhode Island, and Obama by 20 in Vermont. At the end of the night, Obama will have netted more total delegates than Clinton (thanks to a big win in Vermont, close losses in Rhode Island and Ohio, and a delegate, but not popular vote, win in Texas) and this race is back to square one. Obama will win Wyoming and Mississippi in the next 10 days and then we'll have a six week blitz in Pennsylvania leading up to April 22. If Obama can win there, it's over. If he loses, then we have a fight over Michigan, Florida, and Super Delegates, and the party is ripped apart, and the Republicans win in November.

But tonight, it's going to be Hillary Clinton's night. Even if she ends up losing more delegates than she wins.

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