Barack Obama Wins Iowa Caucus

The national media is now projecting that Barack Obama will WIN the Iowa Caucus, and Hillary Clinton will likely finish in a tie for second, or third, behind John Edwards. This is a huge win for Obama, especially if he can pack on a few extra points in the late going here.

More later, but this is a great night for American politics. Now Obama must follow this through with a win next week in New Hampshire. Saturday night's debate is going to be critical now.

Remembering the 2000 Election

As the Democratic Caucus in Iowa begins, and I have a window open to Drudge, MSNBC's First Read and Politico.com (and, of course, MSNBC's coverage on TV), I can't help but think back to the 2000 Election.

I was a senior in high school and I was volunteering for the Voter News Service to report the outcome from my local precinct. As I went in to volunteer I had a spring in my step as I heard on the radio that the state of Florida had been called for Al Gore, and it seemed to seal the election for Gore and the Democrats. To my dismay, a few hours later, Florida was back in the undecided column. I spent hours that night, watching MSNBC and CNN and refreshing the voter totals from Florida as they came in. I kept track of the Florida vote on a legal pad, back and forth, as 95% of the precincts reported, then 96% and 97%. I finally fell asleep around 3:00 a.m., with nothing determined, and as we know, nothing was decided for weeks, so I could have gone to bed earlier. But that night was tense and fun and exhilarating. Like tonight. And as I have a map up of Iowa, with a county-by-county breakdown of the votes as they are reported (which can be found on Politico.com) and I keep waiting for each small report to trickle in, it's like 2000 all over again.

I just hope the night has a better, and earlier resolution.

The Iowa Caucus Is Finally Here

After months of hype, thousands of television ads, Oprah, and tens of millions of dollars spent, the Iowa Caucuses are here. Tonight, we'll know (or not) whether the Democratic establishment succeeded in overcoming the surge of Barack Obama and John Edwards to keep Hillary Clinton at the front of the pack and whether the team of a floating cross (or was it a conveniently lit IKEA bookshelf?) and Chuck Norris can overcome the millions of dollars spent by Mitt Romney.

I've talked at length previously about why I think Barack Obama is the best choice to lead not just the Democratic Party, but country, and bring the change we desperately need while (unlike Senator Clinton) being able to work with Republicans and Independents to get it done, so I'll just say one more thing. It's almost ironic, that the reason why a lot of Iowans and others are hesitant to support Obama is not his policies or his inexperience (really) but they fear he isn't electable. After Al Gore and John Kerry, Democrats are so desperate for a win, and the only Democrat to win in my lifetime, and the lifetime of a lot of Democrats, was Clinton. Barack Obama, though, is infinitely more electable than Hillary Clinton. Just take one look at the head-to-head polls. Hillary is a toss-up, or worse, against most Republicans. Obama is a clear winner. Now, the Clinton campaign will say that's because her negatives are so high because she's had to fight off Republican attacks since 1992, and Obama's numbers will dip once the Republicans get a hold of him.

I don't believe it, and you shouldn't either. No Republican in this race, not one, is as tough, or as calculating, or runs as ruthless a campaign (and ruthless is not always bad in politics, so that word probably sounds more negative than I mean it to be) as Hillary Clinton, and she's had a really hard time knocking Obama off-stride. If she and her campaign and the Clinton machine can't do it, no Republican will be able to. And just look at how Obama will win Iowa, if he wins Iowa. It's by bringing an extraordinary number of independents and even some Republicans into the Democratic world to vote for him. That won't just help him win the Iowa Caucus, it will help him win the state of Iowa in the 2008 Presidential Election, a state the Democrats haven't won since 1996. And it will help him win all across the country. Hillary Clinton will never get that kind of broad-base support. She's a 50% + 1. Barack Obama could unify a nation. And that's not hyperbole. Obama isn't just the smart choice policy wise, he's the right choice politically looking toward the general election. Let's hope Democrats in Iowa wake up this morning feeling the same way.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee has the momentum, but Mitt Romney has the on-the-ground organization, and probably will squeak by because of that if I had to guess. But, as everyone keeps saying, Huckabee is a great politician and a great communicator. He spent, at most, $500,000 in Iowa. Mitt Romney spent at least $8 million, and likely closer to $10 million. It's an amazing spread considering Huckabee is leading going into tonight's vote. I watched Huckabee on the Tonight Show tonight and he was great. I don't know if I agree with his plan for a "Fair Tax" (national sales tax) in place of the income tax, but the way he explained it, it's hard not to get on board. I still can't vote for him, for any number of reasons (his stances on guns being the most blatant, but his disbelief in evolution is up there too) but it's hard not to like the guy, and if Hillary Clinton gets nominated, there is not a more perfect Republican candidate to take her down than Huckabee. I know most Democrats relish the chance to take him on, thinking he'll be an easy foil in November, but I wouldn't be so quick to celebrate should he win. He may win Iowa, despite being outspent 20-1 for a reason.

I'll be posting here tomorrow night, a night I plan on spending watching MSNBC all night. With a team like Keith Olbermann, Chris Matthews, Howard Fineman, Eugene Robinson, Andrea Mitchell, Pat Buchanan, Norah O'Donnell, Joe Scarborough, and others, there won't be any better political coverage out there (though I may flip to CNN and Fox News to see what they say as well).

I'd close by saying something like "It doesn't matter who you vote for, just make sure you vote" tomorrow if you are in Iowa (or, as I properly should say, "just make sure you caucus") but it does matter who you Caucus for. America will either change for the better tomorrow (an Obama win), or will simply be arming itself for the same fight it's been having since the 1980s (a Clinton win). Maybe Clinton can win that fight. Likely, she'll just be fighting it for her term in office. Obama, though, as Mike Huckabee said on the Tonight Show (praising Obama) he's a vertical politician. He transcends right, left, Republican, Democrat, and he can lift America up. Iowa voters just have to let him.

Michigan Upsets Florida 41-35, Sends Lloyd Carr Out On Top

Good for Lloyd Carr. Good for Jake Long, Chad Henne, and Mike Hart, who won't leave Michigan 0-8 against Ohio State and in Bowl Games. Good for the Michigan program, which picked itself up off the mat and won a game in a hostile environment that nobody gave them a chance to win (I certainty didn't -- And neither did Las Vegas, which made Michigan a 10.5-point underdog against the Florida Gators). Michigan defeated Florida 41-35 in today's Capital One Bowl, ending Lloyd Carr's career on a high note, and giving Michigan's seniors the signature victory they have been starving for.

And what a strange game. Mike Hart, who fumbled three times in his entire college career before today, and not once in his last 1,002 touches, fumbled not once, but twice, both inside the red zone, both as Michigan was about to score a touchdown. Wide receiver Mario Manningham carried the ball seven times for 53 yards on reverses. Seven carries for a Michigan wide receiver. Michigan had four turnovers, Florida none, yet Michigan led for most of the game. And the offensive firepower of Florida? No match for Michigan, which put up 524 total yards of offense (compared to 399 for Florida). 524 yards of offense -- That may be what we'll expect to see from new Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez, but to see it from a Lloyd Carr coached team, just incredible. And how about that defense, blitzing even on Florida's final drive and putting pressure on Tim Tebow and Florida all game long? Where was that all season? Not at all the game that anybody expected, but in a very pleasant way for Michigan fans.

In many ways, this was not just the end of Lloyd Carr's tenure at Michigan, but the end of Michigan as fans have known it over the past few decades. Rich Rodriguez' spread offense (whether run by a returning (or potentially not) Ryan Mallett, or by somebody within the program like current wide receiver Junior Hemmingway, or by potential freshman recruit and #1 ranked high school quarterback Terrell Pyror). And what a way to go out. Healthy, aggressive, and successful. A vision of what could have been this season had Michigan not lost to Appalachian State and Oregon, and if Chad Henne and Mike Hart not spent most of the season fighting various injuries.

Today though is not a day to look back on what could have been, but a day to celebrate the ending of the Lloyd Carr era, and the end of the Michigan careers of Chad Henne, Mike Hart, and Jake Long (and potentially Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington as well, who had a remarkable game, with some of the best catches I have ever seen in a Bowl Game). Lloyd Carr went out, deservingly so, on top, leading his team to a huge upset, in an incredibly exciting game that will be talked about at Michigan for years to come.