If Real Life Were The West Wing, Barack Obama Would Win The Presidency During His Speech on Race Tomorrow

If Aaron Sorkin was penning the script for the race for the Democratic nomination for President, tomorrow morning, when Barack Obama speaks in the shadows of the city which helped create this country more than three hundred years ago, the race would be over.

After weeks of hostilities between not the candidates but their surrogates, after comments with racial undertones and blatant racism, deplorable comments and resignations, from both sides, it all my end tomorrow when Barack Obama gives a landmark speech in Philadelphia on race in the race for the White House. Barack Obama, the first African American with a legitimate chance to become President, has tried to stay above the racial divisions which still plague this country. But have it be the racial rhetoric from Bill Clinton or Geraldine Ferraro or the despicable, unforgivable statements and actions taken by Obama's own Reverend, Jeremiah Wright and the church Obama belongs to, he has been unable to stay above the conflict without becoming dragged into it. The son of a Kenyan student and a white Kansan, raised by his mother, by an Indonesian step-father and party by his two white grandparents in Hawaii, Obama's story and his rise to the precipice of the Presidency is uniquely and proudly American.

Every week, campaigns send out press releases and hold conference calls, trying to "set the agenda" for the day or the week. And they hold big speeches on the economy and Iraq and say to the media, "Hillary Clinton is giving a major address on Iraq today" or "Barack Obama is giving a major address on the economy tomorrow." Most of the time, despite the public claiming they want to hear about the issues and not the partisan bickering, and despite the media claiming the grit their teeth as they have yet another Democratic "strategist" come on to talk about the latest gaffe or misstep in the horse race instead of spending time discussing what really matters to Americans in their every day lives, it are these policy speeches which are left unaried and unheard by the vast majority of the American public. Was Hillary Clinton's major address on Iraq covered by all the major cable news outlets today? No. But comments by Barack Obama's church were covered from every angle, multiple times. The same ground trodden over and over again.

Tomorrow's speech should be different. Barack Obama speaking on race on our country and our politics. It could be a monumental day as this is not an ordinary speech. It could be the speech which marginalizes Obama as the "black candidate." The candidate who wins Alabama and Georgia and Mississippi despite receiving only a quarter of the white vote becuase he wins 90% of the black vote. Or it could be the speech that shows America that Obama is more than what he appears to be from the outside looking in and more than what his church says or his pastor does. The candidate that won overwhelmingly in Iowa and Utah and everywhere in between, attracting votes of people of all races and ethnicities.

You can almost hear the music from W.G. Sunffy Walden, the roar of the crowd, the feeling that one speech can move a nation and while it won't solve the problems of race in society, unlike the continued taunts of the Clinton campaign, words do matter. Words move people, words affect people. The words Barack Obama chooses tomorrow may very well decide whether he is the next President of the United States, and more than that, whether he can bring the country together, not just Republican and Democrat and Independent, not just rich and poor, but Black and White and Asian and Hispanic, and every ethnicity and religion and culture.

It is not an easy task, it is a high bar that would take somebody, some person, to reach. But nobody told Barack Obama this was going to be easy. He is not lucky to be who he is, he has worked for where he is, and if there is any politician that can inspire and lead a nation with his words, yes, just words, there is no question there is no better person in this country today to do so than Barack Obama. Maybe his speech tomorrow will be forgotten as soon as its given, as the 24-hour-news-cycle moves to some other scandal, some other campaign storyline. Or maybe it will win Barack Obama the Presidency, put the racial divisiveness of this campaign behind us , and convince Democrats that the only way to win in the fall is not continue to fight amongst ourselves, but to come together, and there is no way to do that, unfortunately, without addressing the racial tones which have dominated the campaign for the past two weeks.

I'd watch the speech tomorrow, something tells me we may see something truly special. If West Wing is any guide, tomorrow Barack Obama will win the Presidency.

Clinton Campaign Once Again Shows They Don't Understand The Delegate Process

If one needed any further proof that one campaign understands what it means to be in a race for delegates and another campaign thinks they can win the nomination without the support of the majority of the delegates, there is no better example than what happened last night in Iowa.

While the country, and the Clinton campaign, is focused on the April 22 primary in Pennsylvania, the Obama campaign focused their attention on Iowa. While Iowa was the first state to hold a primary or caucus this year, the fight for delegates in Iowa did not end with Obama's victory on election night back in January (wow, does that seem like a long time ago). That's because while Iowa did apportion delegates on that night, those delegates were for county conventions. At the county conventions (which took place yesterday) delegates to the state convention were selected. And at the state convention, then delegates to the national Democratic convention will be elected. If it sounds confusing, don't worry, it's obvious the Clinton campaign doesn't understand the process either.

Here's where it gets interesting (at least for political geeks and junkies like myself, and where it should get interesting for anyone following the fight for delegates). In January, John Edwards finished in second place ahead of Hillary Clinton and was awarded 14 delegates. Well, since Edwards has now dropped out of the race, at the county convention, those 14 delegates were up for grabs. And while some Edwards supporters continued to vote for their candidate, and six of Edwards fourteen delegates remain with him, eight were lost. All eight went to Barack Obama. And elsewhere in the voting, one Hillary Clinton delegate defected to Obama's camp, giving Barack Obama, when practically nobody was looking, a net gain of 10 delegates last night.

So while Hillary Clinton netted 9 delegates out of Ohio, Obama netted more from last night's Iowa county conventions. That's remarkable, especially because Hillary likely won't gain more than 10 or 15 delegates from Pennsylvania in late April. How behind can the Clinton campaign continue to fall while still having a legitimate argument they should be the Democratic nominee? Every delegate is crucial right now, and the Obama campaign, despite being ahead over 150 pledged delegates, understands that, and takes no delegate for granted. The Clinton campaign, meanwhile, puts down the caucus system, which as NBC's Chuck Todd rightly points out is going to haunt Hillary through these county conventions and they continue to lose massive amounts of delegates making it impossible for them to overcome the pledged delegate lead Obama has.

And unless the Clinton campaign realizes how important actually gaining delegates is, instead of meaningless "momentum" or "talking points," they will continue to fall further and further behind Obama, even if their rhetoric tries to convince the world (and, most importantly, the remaining unpledged Super Delegates) the opposite is really true.

Lions Cut Kevin Jones and Kalimba Edwards; Another Proud Day in the Millen Regime

It's another proud day in the Matt Millen regime as leader of the Detroit Lions as two more of his top draft picks have been cut from the Lions as the team has announced that both defensive end Kalimba Edwards (who just last season signed a lucrative extension with the team) and running back Kevin Jones are no longer part of the Lions team. While Jones may come back at a reduced salary, that isn't looking incredibly likely at this point, and Edwards won't be back.

Excellent. More top draft picks gone. So aside from Ernie Sims, Roy Williams (who himself isn't likely to be with the team past this season), Jeff Backus, and Calvin Johnson, is anyone left? Daniel Bullocks and Gerald Alexander I guess. Now, cutting Kalimba Edwards, I understand. He has consistently underperformed, he'd never lived up to expectations, and if Rod Marinelli, a defensive-line specialist, can't get anything out of you, it doesn't make much sense to keep you around.

Now Kevin Jones, that I don't understand. Yes, he's been injured. He missed most of the start of last season with a Lisfranc fracture and he tore his ACL near the end of the last season. But from all reports, he was ahead of schedule on his rehab and was all set to be ready for training camp. He and the Lions even just recently agreed that he'd be doing the rest of his rehab here in Detroit. Now, suddenly, he's gone. When healthy last season, Jones was very productive, and he's been productive his whole career when he's been healthy. And with the loss of TJ Duckett earlier this off-season, Jones was key to the Lions offense going into the 2008 season. Now he's gone, leaving the Lions with Tatum Bell, Aveion Cason, and Brain Calhoun (who spends more time on the injured list than Jones).

Which means the Lions will likely spend their first round pick on a running back in this April's draft, which is no less than disastrous. The Detroit Lions have so many holes in key positions (right tackle, defensive end, middle linebacker, outside linebacker) the last thing they need to do is spend ANOTHER first round draft pick on an offensive skill player. Matt Millen has already spent the majority of our first round picks on offensive skill players (Charles Rogers, Joey Harrington, Roy Williams, Mike Williams, Kevin Jones, and Calvin Johnson) and only two remain with the team, and Roy Williams isn't likely to be with the Lions past this season. The only first round draft pick who has made a real impact (okay, maybe Roy Williams has too) is Ernie Sims, who not coincidentally is the only defensive player Millen has chosen in the first round. Wasting another draft pick on a running back when Kevin Jones would have been fine if supplemented with a third round running back is another in a long line of failures by the Detroit Lions.

If we didn't have so many other needs, then maybe. But with the way the team stands now? What a disaster.

Why Bill Foster's Victory Tonight Was So Important For Barack Obama

Something pretty extraordinary happened tonight, and not just Barack Obama winning the state of Wyoming by a 61-38 margin. In a special election to fill the seat in the United States House of Representatives vacated by former Speaker of the House Denny Hastert, a seat in a very Republican area of Illinois, in a District Hastert has won overwhelmingly since entering Congress in the 1980s, Democrat Bill Foster has become the newest member of Congress. Foster, endorsed by Barack Obama (Obama even cut a TV spot for Foster), despite not being a career politician, withstood a multi-million dollar effort from the Republican Party to hold the seat (and even overcome John McCain campaigning for his opponent).

This is great news for Democrats, as it continues to show that when given the choice between Republicans and Democrats, even in previously Republican areas, the country keeps trending Democratic, which bodes for well for picking up House and Senate seats in the fall and increasing our majorities in both houses of Congress.

But even more than that, tonight was a huge victory for Barack Obama, and not just because he gained Foster's Super Delegate vote tonight. One of the biggest advantages of Obama, and one of the biggest fears about Hillary Clinton, is that Obama is bringing so many new people to the Democratic party, and attracting so many independents and even Republicans in some areas of the country, that he'll be able to not just ensure victory for himself in November, but help even more Democrats win down the ballot. People coming out for Obama will likely vote for Democrats in House and Senate races and state races as well. Obama has done extraordinarily well in Republican states, and even if he can't win them in the fall, he'll force John McCain to spend time and to spend money in states that Republicans usually take for granted. Instead of concentrating his efforts on Ohio, Michigan, and Florida, McCain will have to spend precious resources in places like Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado.

And Obama's appeal has an added benefit to Democrats running in these Republican states. Even if Obama can't pull out a state himself, he may draw enough turnout to win a few House races otherwise unreachable. One of the biggest fears of Democrats in "red" states is that having Hillary Clinton at the front of the ticket will be an anchor which will sink the Democrats' chances to pick up crucial Congressional seats in swing and leaning-Republican districts. And when Super Delegates make their decision on whom to support, this downstream, down-ballot impact is going to be very important in their decision making. And having Obama's imprimatur certainly pushed Bill Foster over the edge, and it could push many other Democrats to victory as well. So Obama had a very, very good night tonight, because with Bill Foster's victory in the reddest of red areas of Illinois, it shows the power Obama can have leading the Democratic Party in 2008, and that's a lesson Super Delegates are not likely to soon forget.